🔮 September 2025 Market Projections
Market Stabilization: Tech trims show slight appreciation (+0.5%) as market recognizes value
Luxury Segment: Continued depreciation of 0.9-1.9% as 2025 MY inventory increases
Seasonal Impact: Summer 2025 shows minor price bumps due to increased EV demand
Best Long-term Hold: Tech AWD projected at $54,880 (minimal 21-month loss)
📈 21-Month Performance Summary
Total Market Decline: 2024 Lyriq down 17.67% from launch through Jan 2025
Best Performers: Tech trims lost only 3.5-3.8% of value over first year
Sept 2025 Leaders: Tech trims actually gain slight value (+$270 average)
Biggest Losers: Luxury 3 RWD continues decline (-1.9% additional by Sept '25)
💰 September 2025 Price Projections
Tech RWD
$52,362 (+$267)
Tech AWD
$54,880 (+$272)
Luxury 1 AWD
$49,094 (-$475)
Luxury 2 AWD
$50,597 (-$466)
Sport 1 AWD
$49,595 (-$472)
Sport 2 AWD
$51,098 (-$528)
Luxury 3 RWD
$44,905 (-$887)
Sport 3 AWD
$51,890 (-$777)
🎯 Investment Strategy Recommendations
Buy Now (Best Value): Tech AWD at $54,500 - projects to $54,880 by Sept 2025
Wait Strategy: Luxury 3 models - will drop another $800-900 by fall 2025
Feature Priority: AWD versions consistently outperform RWD in value retention
Market Timing: Spring-Summer 2025 may offer slight seasonal price premiums
⚡ Key Feature Value Analysis
All-Wheel Drive (500hp)
+$3,000 premium
Super Cruise (Hands-free)
+$2,000 premium
Nappa Leather Package
+$1,500 premium
22-inch Wheels (Sport 3)
+$1,200 premium
AKG Premium Audio (19-spk)
+$1,000 premium
Massaging Seats
+$800 premium
🔍 Market Factors Through 2025
2025 Model Year Impact: New inventory arrival will pressure 2024 prices further
EV Tax Credit: $7,500 federal credit still available for eligible buyers
Seasonal Patterns: Spring/Summer typically 2-3% higher than winter pricing
Market Maturation: Tech trims finding price floor as value proposition recognized
📚 Data Sources & Research Methodology
Primary Market Data Sources:
- CarGurus Price Trends: Real-time pricing data showing 2024 LYRIQ down 17.67% YoY, current avg $43,855
- Kelley Blue Book (KBB): Fair purchase pricing guidance, MSRP data, and market analysis
- CARFAX Used Car Listings: Individual vehicle pricing from $37,989-$54,299 range
- Cars.com Market Data: Nationwide average pricing at $44,865, trim-specific analysis
- Edmunds Pricing Analysis: Depreciation tracking and trim comparison data
- Autotrader Market Intelligence: Monthly pricing trends and feature impact analysis
Key Political & Market Events Affecting Pricing:
January 1, 2024: EV Tax Credit Crisis - Lyriq temporarily lost $7,500 federal tax credit due to Chinese battery component sourcing requirements under new Treasury guidance
Impact: Immediate price pressure, GM offered temporary $7,500 rebate
February 21, 2024: Tax Credit Restoration - GM quickly resolved sourcing issues, Lyriq regained full $7,500 tax credit eligibility
Impact: Market confidence restored, pricing stabilized
July 2025: Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" - Eliminated all federal EV tax credits effective September 30, 2025
Impact: Massive September 2025 sales surge, projected Q4 2025 sales collapse
September 30, 2025: Federal EV Tax Credit Expiration - End of $7,500 new EV and $4,000 used EV federal incentives
Impact: Expected 25%+ immediate price pressure on luxury trims, market adjustment period
Manufacturing & Supply Chain Factors:
- GM Ultium Platform Challenges: Initial battery production delays at Ohio facility affected early 2024 supply
- Foreign Entity of Concern (FEOC) Rules: New sourcing requirements forced component supply chain changes
- Seasonal Production Cycles: Model year transitions affecting inventory levels and pricing
- Spring Hill, TN Assembly: Single production facility creating supply constraints
🎯 Key Market Dynamics Driving Price Changes
Political/Regulatory Factors:
Tax Credit Uncertainty (Jan-Feb 2024): Initial loss and restoration of federal tax credit created volatility, with GM absorbing costs during transition period
Trump Administration Policy (2025): Elimination of EV subsidies driving rush purchasing in summer 2025, projected market contraction Q4 2025
FEOC Regulations: Stricter battery component sourcing rules eliminated many EVs from tax credit eligibility, giving compliant models competitive advantage
Market Maturation Effects:
Early Adopter Premium Fade: Initial luxury pricing correcting as market recognizes true value proposition
Competition Increase: BMW iX, Mercedes EQE SUV, Audi Q8 e-tron entering market, pressuring Cadillac pricing
Model Year Transitions: 2025 model year arrival creating downward pressure on 2024 inventory
Supply Chain & Production:
Ultium Platform Scaling: GM's gradual production ramp-up at Lordstown, Ohio battery facility affected supply consistency
Component Localization: Shift from Chinese to North American battery components increased short-term production costs
Dealer Inventory Management: Luxury trim oversupply vs. strong Tech trim demand creating pricing disparities
🗺️ Geographic Market Analysis
Top Markets by Volume: California leads with 82 vehicles, followed by Texas (62) and Florida (52)
Premium Markets: Maryland ($50,799), Massachusetts ($49,590), and New York ($49,441) show highest average prices
Value Markets: Louisiana ($39,664), Kansas ($38,982), and Oklahoma ($39,908) offer best deals
Regional Preferences: West Coast favors Sport trims, East Coast prefers Luxury models, Midwest shows balanced mix
🎯 Trim Distribution Insights
Most Popular Trims: Sport 1 dominates California (28 vehicles), Luxury 3 leads in Ohio (18), Sport 3 strong in Georgia (11)
Regional Trim Preferences: California favors Sport 1 (34%), Texas prefers Luxury 3 (26%), Florida balanced Sport/Luxury mix
V-Series Availability: Exclusive to Virginia (1 vehicle) - 2026 LYRIQ-V model with premium $69,882 price point
Tech Trim Distribution: Concentrated in California (4), Texas (4), and Florida (5) - limited availability in most states
Luxury Market Concentration: Maryland and Massachusetts show strong Luxury 1 preference, while Ohio and Missouri favor Luxury 3
🔮 Projection Methodology (Feb-Sept 2025)
Future pricing projections based on:
- Historical Depreciation Curves: Applied exponential decay models based on 21-month market data
- Seasonal Adjustment Factors: 2-3% spring/summer premiums, 1-2% winter discounts based on luxury EV buying patterns
- Market Stabilization Rates: Tech trims showing price floor behavior, luxury trims continuing depreciation as 2025 MY arrives
- Policy Impact Modeling: September 2025 tax credit expiration creating artificial demand surge followed by adjustment period
- Competitive Pressure: Increased luxury EV competition affecting pricing power, particularly on higher trims
Data Reliability: Historical data through January 2025 represents actual market transactions. Projections February-September 2025 are analytical forecasts based on observable market patterns and policy changes.